Spatial analysis of land possession and wealth concentration under different leasehold systems: In Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

This study analyzes the spatial patterns of land possession and wealth concentration under different urban leasehold systems in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Rapid urbanization and rising land demand have intensified disparities in land prices, access, and investment outcomes across sub- cities. Using a mixed-methods approach that integrates land registry data, spatial analysis (Moran’s I, LISA, Getis Ord Gi), and econometric modeling, the study examines how leasehold levels, plot size, location, and down payment requirements influence land values and wealth distribution. The findings reveal significant spatial variation in land prices, with centrally located districts exhibiting higher unit prices and stronger wealth concentration. An inverse relationship between plot size and price per square meter is observed across all lease levels. Full upfront payment requirements for premium plots restrict access for lower-income households, reinforcing socioeconomic inequality. The study concludes that Ethiopia’s urban leasehold policies play a decisive role in shaping spatial inequality and recommends flexible payment schemes and equity- oriented land allocation reforms to promote inclusive urban development.