Comparative assessment of road accident frequency in midsize and densely populated cities: Analyzing risk factors and societal burden

This study presents a comparative assessment of road traffic accidents in Ilorin, a midsize Nigerian city, and Lagos, a densely populated metropolis. It explores accident frequency, underlying risk factors, and the societal burden of traffic incidents in both urban settings, using urban systems theory, risk management theory, and the social determinants of health theory as its frameworks. The study uses a comparative cross-sectional design, analyzing accident data from 2018 to 2023 through desktop research, and integrates qualitative methods including interviews with 100 stakeholders, ranging from accident victims to urban planners, and focus group discussions with road users.

Findings reveal that Lagos experiences a significantly higher average of 15,000 accidents per year due to population density, frequent vehicle breakdowns, and traffic congestion. Ilorin, though recording fewer accidents (around 4,500 annually), has a higher fatality rate, largely due to poor road infrastructure and inadequate emergency services. Both cities share common causes such as reckless driving and speeding. Lagos suffers greater financial losses (₦500 million/month) compared to Ilorin (₦100 million/month), with implications for healthcare and property. The study concludes by recommending city-specific strategies: traffic management and vehicle upgrades for Lagos, and improved infrastructure and emergency response for Ilorin, highlighting the need for context-driven road safety policies.