Quantifying Economic Impact of COVID-19-Induced Disruptions in Nigeria’s Medicine Supply Chains: Prices, Availability and Out-of-Pocket Burdens

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed significant structural weaknesses in global pharmaceutical supply chains, disrupting manufacturing output, cross-border logistics, and market stability. As countries implemented lockdowns, restricted exports, and faced production backlogs, medicine availability became increasingly volatile. These global disruptions translated into pronounced economic shocks in low- and middle-income countries, where health systems rely heavily on imported pharmaceuticals and fragile distribution networks. Nigeria experienced particularly acute vulnerabilities due to its dependence on international suppliers, limited domestic manufacturing capacity, and the dominance of out-of-pocket payments in healthcare financing. This combination amplified the economic consequences of medicine shortages, price spikes, and supply-chain fragmentation during the pandemic. This study quantifies the economic impact of COVID-19-induced disruptions across Nigeria’s medicine supply chains by examining price fluctuations, product availability trends, and changing out-of-pocket expenditure patterns. Using a mixed-methods approach that integrates market data, procurement analytics, and household-level expenditure insights, the analysis identifies how disruptions disproportionately affected essential medicines such as antibiotics, antihypertensives, antimalarials, and chronic disease therapies. The study further assesses the cascading economic effects on households, highlighting how rising commodity prices and recurring stockouts deepened financial vulnerability, forced treatment delays, and intensified reliance on substandard or informal substitutes. The findings reveal that COVID-19 amplified structural inefficiencies already present in Nigeria’s pharmaceutical ecosystem, underscoring the urgent need for resilient supply-chain policies. The paper recommends strategies including domestic production scaling, buffer stock expansion, improved demand forecasting, regional procurement coordination, and targeted financial protection mechanisms. By presenting evidence-based insights, this study contributes to the policy discourse on strengthening Nigeria’s medicine supply chains against future global shocks while safeguarding household access and affordability.