An algebraic interpretation of the spread of COVID-19 in India and an assessment of the impact of social distancing

An enormously infectious disease, called COVID-19, has been ravaging the world since January 2020. It has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) in March 2020. The number of COVID-19 infections began to rise in India very rapidly since March 2020. A countrywide lockdown was in effect from 25 March 2020 to 31 May 2020. The objective of the present study is to provide a simple algebraic analysis of the trend that is evident in the spread of the disease in India. The standard mathematical models, regarding the spread of epidemics, are never easy for the policymakers to understand. Our algebraic approach is aimed at simplifying the calculation sufficiently to make it comprehensible to those involved in the prevention and control of the pandemic. The predictions, derived from this algebraic model, are found to be in reasonable agreement with the actual data of COVID-19 cases. The number of asymptomatic carriers, who are known to play a significant role in spreading the disease, has been determined in the present study. The effect of social distancing in slowing down the rate of transmission of the disease has been analyzed. Predictions have been made regarding the spread of the pandemic following the withdrawal of lockdown. All our calculations are based on extremely simple mathematical expressions, which can be easily understood and employed by those who have a rudimentary knowledge of algebra. This model can be used for making predictions regarding the spread of COVID-19 in any part of the world by a suitable tuning of the associated parameters.