INFLUENCE OF COMMUNITY-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS ON RESILIENCE-ORIENTED PROJECT PLANNING AMONG NANO, SMALL AND MICRO-ENTERPRISES IN MARSABIT COUNTY, KENYA

Nano, Small and Micro Enterprises (NSMEs), represent the final linkage within last-mile delivery of food, water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) commodities, in Kenya's arid and semi-arid regions; however, these entities remain excluded from formal disaster risk management and project planning frameworks. The objective of this study was to determine the extent to which Community Based Early Warning Systems (CBEWS) influence Resilience-Oriented Project Planning amongst NSMEs in Marsabit County, specifically regarding access to early warning information, translation of that information into preparedness, and mechanisms that enable such transition. Utilizing programmatic evidence from the B-READY Anticipatory Action Program, a Pre-Crisis Market Mapping and Analysis (PCMMA) of fifty NSMEs, Activation Ready Protocol (ARP) co-design forums, and associated anticipatory action plans; along with a literature review of CBEWS, anticipatory actions, and enterprise resiliency, the study developed a conceptual model relating access to early warnings to outcomes in planning through three constructs: Trust, Translation, and Actionability. The findings of the study indicated that while drought and flood forecasts have Increased their reach to Marsabit's trading community; access does not consistently translate into planning: fewer than half of the enterprises participated in the study used climate information to prepare for shocks, and almost none had written continuity plans. In addition to lacking sufficient working capital to withstand even short duration disruptions. Successful translation occurred primarily when scientific forecasting was integrated with locally trusted Indigenous Technical Knowledge, disseminated via trader networks and radio broadcasts, and coupled with trigger-based financing protocols. As such, it is recommended that county governments, humanitarian organizations, financial institutions and NSMEs treat early warning as an intermediate input requiring deliberate co-designed project components rather than a terminal product.