Effects of climate change on the evolution of climatic parameters for a typical climate in Guinea: Case of the Upper Guinea region

This study analyzes the effects of climate change on the evolution of climatic parameters in a Sudano-Sahelian climate zone in Guinea, using the Upper Guinea region, specifically the prefectures of Kouroussa, Mandiana, and Siguiri, as a case study. The meteorological data used, covering the period 2000–2022, were collected from the Guinean National Meteorological Directorate and include precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, and solar irradiation. The methodology employed is based on a descriptive and comparative statistical analysis of climate time series to identify spatiotemporal trends. The results show marked interannual variability in rainfall, with similar profiles across the three locations, but a dominance of rainfall in Kouroussa, where a maximum of 2582 mm was recorded in 2021. Temperatures also show consistent trends, with higher values in Siguiri (average maximum of 28.5°C), reflecting an intensification of thermal conditions linked in particular to the degradation of vegetation cover. Relative humidity follows the same dynamic, with higher levels in Kouroussa (up to 70%) and lower levels observed in Siguiri (42%), reflecting drier conditions in the latter location. Furthermore, solar irradiation is higher in Siguiri, reaching a peak in 2013, which is consistent with the decrease in rainfall and the increase in temperatures. These results highlight a general trend towards progressive aridification of the climate in Upper Guinea, characterized by rising temperatures, a relative decrease in humidity and an increase in solar irradiation, with significant implications for natural resources and socio-economic systems.