Informal Mobility and Urban Crime Perception: Evidence from Commercial Motorcycle Operations in Ibadan, Nigeria

Informal transport systems constitute a major component of urban mobility in cities of the Global South, particularly where formal public transport provision is limited. In Nigerian cities, commercial motorcycles dominate everyday mobility, yet their perceived relationship with urban crime remains insufficiently examined. This study quantitatively investigates the relationship between commercial motorcycle operations and urban crime perception in Ibadan North. Anchored in Routine Activity Theory and Crime Opportunity Theory, the study adopts a mixed-methods design integrating a cross-sectional survey of 226 residents, secondary police crime records, and geospatial analysis using Kernel Density Estimation (KDE). Respondents were predominantly male (63.3%), formally educated (92.8%), with a mean age of 32.6 years; 51.4% were self-employed and 31.4% were students. Pearson correlation analysis indicates a weak positive relationship (R² = 0.06) between registered commercial motorcycles and recorded crime cases, while Chi-square analysis reveals a statistically significant association between perceived motorcycle-related crime and perceived levels of urban criminality (χ² = 35.48, p < 0.001). Spatial analysis identifies five major crime hotspots accounting for 68.4% of reported incidents, with the highest density along the Sabo–Adamasingba corridor. Overall, urban crime perception is more strongly shaped by routine exposure within informal mobility environments and socio-economic positioning than by aggregate crime trends, underscoring the need for perception-sensitive and spatially targeted transport–security interventions that protect safety without undermining access or livelihoods