Population growth and regional food security dynamics: evidence from the food security index in Gorontalo Province, Indonesia (2018–2024)

Food security remains a critical component of sustainable regional development, particularly in agrarian areas experiencing ongoing demographic change. Population growth increases food demand and may exert pressure on food systems if not matched by adequate improvements in food availability and access. This study aims to analyze the effect of population growth on the Food Security Index in Gorontalo Province, Indonesia, during the period 2018–2024, with a focus on understanding the demographic dimension of food security at the subnational level. The study employs a quantitative explanatory approach using panel data at the regency and city level. Secondary data on population growth are obtained from official statistical sources, while food security is measured using the Food Security Index, a composite indicator reflecting food availability, access, and utilization. Linear panel regression analysis is applied to estimate the relationship between population growth and food security over time. The results indicate that population growth has a statistically significant and negative effect on the Food Security Index in Gorontalo Province. This finding suggests that increases in population tend to weaken food security when growth in food system capacity does not keep pace with rising demand. The discussion highlights that population growth affects food security through multiple channels, including pressure on food availability, competition for agricultural land, and reduced economic access to food for vulnerable households. These outcomes are consistent with demographic and entitlement-based perspectives, emphasizing that food insecurity arises not only from supply constraints but also from limitations in access and utilization. In conclusion, the study demonstrates that population growth constitutes an important determinant of regional food security in Gorontalo Province. The findings underscore the need for food security policies that integrate demographic considerations alongside agricultural development and social protection measures to ensure sustainable and equitable food security outcomes.