Climate finance: Geopolitics, wars, tariffs and the road to COP30

The global climate agenda faces a crucial turning point as geopolitical conflicts increasingly compete with environmental goals. Conflicts in Ukraine and West Asia have diverted funds to military spending and deepened reliance on fossil fuels. Meanwhile, energy security crises have exposed global supply chain vulnerabilities, forcing short-term dependence on coal, oil, and liquefied natural gas, despite commitments to boost renewable energy. Trade disputes further complicate the situation: former U.S. President Donald Trump’s revived tariff policies have raised fears of protectionism harming affordable clean technology access, while the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) risks sparking “green trade wars” by unfairly impacting developing countries. These issues erode trust in multilateral climate negotiations, especially as climate finance credibility needs rebuilding after COP29’s revelations in Baku. Climate change, which demands long-term, coordinated efforts, has become an unintended casualty within this turbulent environment. Future talks must go beyond symbolic promises by establishing transparent, fair financial flows, protecting green investments from geopolitical shocks, and ensuring trade measures are equitable. Only by balancing security, trade, and sustainability can COP30 establish a foundation for resilient and inclusive climate action.