Measuring policy efficacy: A spaciotemporal and predictive analysis of gun legislation in New York city

This study aims to measure the efficacy of gun legislation in New York City by conducting a spatiotemporal and predictive analysis of historical shooting incidents. The research analyzes NYPD data from 2006 to 2023 to identify long-term trends, geographic hotspots, and demographic profiles of victims. Utilizing Tableau for data visualization and forecasting, the methodology involves mapping incident concentrations, analyzing temporal patterns, and projecting future violence rates to establish a benchmark for policy evaluation. Key findings reveal a significant decline in gun incidents following legislative packages in 2007 and 2013, suggesting initial policy success. However, a pronounced surge post-2020 indicates the limitations of existing laws, with violence concentrated in the Bronx and Brooklyn and disproportionately affecting Black males aged 25-44. The predictive forecast does not project a decline but a continuation of elevated violence levels. The study concludes that while legislative frameworks are necessary, they are insufficient alone. A paradigm shift is urgently needed, coupling smart gun regulations with targeted investments to address the underlying socio-economic drivers of violence for a more effective and holistic public safety strategy.