Investigating the Relationship between Oil Exports and Economic Growth in Nigeria (2000-2023)

This study investigates the relationship between oil exports and economic growth in Nigeria from 2000 to 2023. The econometric techniques of ordinary least squares (OLS), Phillips-Perron (PP), Unit Root Tests, and Johansen co-integration tests are employed in the empirical analysis, along with Vector Error Correction Modelling, within the Resource Curse theoretical framework. The study reveals two distinct long-run equilibrium relationships among GDP, oil exports, government expenditure, and corruption. Results demonstrate that while oil wealth and government spending theoretically possess growth potential, their positive effects are systematically neutralised by institutional weaknesses. Corruption exhibits a significant negative impact on economic performance across time horizons. The error correction mechanism shows rapid adjustment with overshooting effects (ECT = -1.517), indicating a high volatility characteristic of resource-dependent economies. Findings confirm the Resource Curse hypothesis, revealing that Nigeria's challenge lies not in resource scarcity but in institutional incapacity to translate resource wealth into sustainable development. The study concludes that comprehensive institutional reforms, rather than temporary interventions, are essential to breaking the cycle of underperformance.