UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION AND CARRIER-COLLECTION ROBUSTNESS UNDER PHYSICAL TOLERANCES IN A SERIES VERTICAL-JUNCTION SILICON SOLAR CELL

This work investigates the propagation of uncertainties in physical parameters to carrier collection in a series vertical-junction silicon solar cell. Starting from an exact dimensionless collection law, uncertainties are introduced in the base thickness H, diffusion coefficient D, carrier lifetime τ, and interface recombination velocities Sf and Sb. For each realization, the diffusion length and the reduced parameters h, f, and b are recalculated, thereby preserving the dependencies induced by the physical transformation. Twenty-seven nominal regimes and four controlled uncertainty amplitudes, from ±5% to ±30%, are investigated using a Monte Carlo campaign of 120,000 realizations per scenario. Robustness is characterized by the coefficient of variation of collection and by R90 = P(C ≥ 0.9 C0). The median coefficient of variation increases from approximately 3.13% at ±5% to 18.94% at ±30%, while the maximum value reaches 37.14%. Over the same range, the median R90 decreases from 100% to approximately 68.12%. At ±30%, some regimes retain R90 close to unity, whereas the least robust regime in the grid reaches approximately 60.17%. The regime of maximum statistical dispersion does not exactly coincide with that of minimum R90. These results show that nominal performance, statistical dispersion, and probabilistic robustness are distinct properties and establish a regime-dependent map for assessing collection robustness under controlled physical uncertainty.