Risks of dry spell occurrence at critical growth stages and their impacts on cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) development in production areas of Côte d’Ivoire

In Côte d’Ivoire, climate change is increasing the frequency of dry spells, thereby threatening cotton production, which is highly dependent on rainfall. This study analyzes the probability of dry spells lasting more than 10 days during the different growth stages of cotton in Ivorian cotton production areas. Results show that after sowing, dry spell probabilities are moderate in the North (<35%), but high in the Center (up to 63%) and the South (up to 67%). During the flowering stage, risks remain low in the North (≤20%) but reach 70% in the Center and 94% in the South. At the boll opening stage, conditions are generally favorable, with dry spell occurrence probabilities ranging between 50% and 97%. This spatio-temporal variability in dry spells highlights the need to adjust sowing dates based on seasonal forecasts and to promote drought-tolerant varieties, along with soil-water conservation practices.