Planning and stakeholder coordination in the sustainability of the wood-energy cycle: A prospective analysis in Madagascar

In developing countries, wood-energy is a major source of energy for households, particularly in rural areas where access to modern alternatives remains limited. This dependence generates increasing pressure on forest resources and poses a sustainability challenge for the system. The problem lies in the conditions for the sustainability of the wood-energy cycle, characterized by high pressure on resources and weak organization among stakeholders. The objective is to assess the extent to which forest resource planning and stakeholder coordination can stabilize the system and reduce pressure on forest resources. The research focuses on the following questions: how can sustainable forest management planning contribute to stabilizing the wood-energy cycle and sustainably meeting needs? and does stakeholder coordination improve the sustainability of the forest system to reduce pressure on resources? The hypotheses suggest that sustainable forest management planning contributes to stabilizing the wood-energy cycle and sustainably meeting needs, and that coordination among stakeholders improves the system's sustainability and reduces pressure on resources. The methodology is based on an analytical and forward-looking approach, combining system modeling over a ten-year horizon with organizational analysis using the Programme Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). The results show that planning improves resource regeneration, reduces structural constraints, and stabilizes economic variables. The PERT analysis highlights a critical path structured around production, processing, marketing, and consumption, which determines the system's functioning. These results demonstrate that sustainability relies on the complementarity of planning and coordination, and open up avenues for strengthening institutional frameworks and improving the organization of wood-energy sectors.