Mathematical Framework for Quantifying Greenwashing in Corporate Net-Zero Commitments

This paper develops a rigorous mathematical framework for detecting and quantifying greenwashing in corporate netzero emission commitments. We introduce the Greenwashing Index (GI), a composite metric derived from informationtheoretic and stochastic analysis of corporate climate disclosures. Through dimensional analysis and Bayesian
inference, we establish that traditional carbon accounting methods [10, 11] systematically underestimate scope 3
emissions by 34 − 67% (95% 𝐶𝐼) , creating substantial opportunity for deceptive net-zero claims. Our model
demonstrates that current voluntary carbon markets exhibit price inefficiencies characterized by a log-normal
distribution with 𝜇 = 2.8 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝜎 = 1.4 , enabling arbitrage-based greenwashing strategies. We prove that under
realistic assumptions, 73% of Fortune 500 net-zero pledges fail mathematical consistency tests when evaluated against
their operational emission trajectories. The framework provides quantitative thresholds for regulatory intervention
and establishes a foundation for verifiable climate accountability.