Evolution and turning points in India's milk production: A structural break approach to understanding dairy sector growth

The present study examined shifts in the growth trajectory of India's dairy sector by analysing structural discontinuities in milk production over the 2000–2024 period. To endogenously detect turning points in the production series, the Bai-Perron multiple structural breakpoint procedure was applied. The analysis identified three statistically significant break points, occurring in 2007, 2014, and 2019, each signalling a notable alteration in the underlying growth dynamics of milk output. Estimates of the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) across the resulting structural regimes revealed considerable heterogeneity in sectoral performance over time. Notably, the sub-period spanning 2015–2019 exhibited the most rapid expansion, pointing to a phase of intensified output growth. The observed inter-regime variation reflects the cumulative influence of evolving policy frameworks, institutional arrangements, and broader economic developments on the long-run trajectory of the Indian dairy economy.