An Empirical Analysis of Bangladesh’s Textile and Ready-Made Garment (RMG) Sector: Export Trends, Sustainability Indicators, Gendered Labor Dynamics, and Global Value Chain Upgrading

Bangladesh’s textile and ready-made garment (RMG) industry has transformed from a small export-oriented sector in the late 1970s into the world’s second-largest apparel exporter, contributing about 81% of national export earnings on a fiscal year basis and employing approximately four million workers. This study provides an original mixed-methods secondary-data analysis of the industry’s evolution by integrating quantitative trend analysis with qualitative thematic interpretation. Drawing on selected calendar-year RMG export observations from 2000 to 2025, the study applies compound annual growth rate, year-on-year growth analysis, and a linear time-trend forecasting model to assess export performance and possible trajectories for 2026–2030. The analysis is further interpreted through the Triple Bottom Line and Global Value Chain frameworks, focusing on four interconnected dimensions: economic growth, sustainability, gendered labor dynamics, and global value chain integration. The findings show that RMG exports increased from USD 4.8 billion in 2000 to USD 38.82 billion in 2025, representing a long-term CAGR of approximately 8.72%. However, the sharp post-2022 decline and modest recovery in 2024–2025 indicate growing vulnerability to global demand shocks. The baseline forecast suggests that exports may reach approximately USD 48.61 billion by 2030, while scenario analysis shows that stronger upgrading could raise performance above USD 53 billion. Despite progress in LEED-certified green factories and post-Rana Plaza safety reforms, sustainability gains remain uneven, wage gaps persist, women’s workforce participation has declined, and functional upgrading remains limited. The study argues that Bangladesh’s future competitiveness depends on moving beyond low-cost assembly toward higher-value production, technical textiles, stronger labor governance, sustainability integration, and deeper GVC upgrading.