Countering Misinformation in U.S. Critical-Minerals Projects: A Risk-Communication Framework for Community Trust and Permitting Resilience

Critical mineral projects in the U.S. have been instrumental in energy transition and supply chain resilience, though the permitting process is now being derailed by misinformation that causes the community to lose trust. This paper unites the risk-communication theory and analytics-based solutions with the aim to suggest possibilities to overcome misinformation in high-stake extractive projects. The study is performed through a hybrid qualitative-quantitative design comprising case mapping of controversies of permitting, sentiment analysis of community discussion, and A/B testing of message frames under controlled conditions. Findings find that the rapid spread of misinformation is fostered during times of regulatory uncertainty, with the velocity of rumors amplified by digital echo chambers. Corrective communication proved to be most effective when divided up by audience type and carried out by credible intermediaries, such as universities and NGOs. Predictive analytics allowed the detection of the acceleration of rumors very early, and hence interventions were made in time. The study contributes to theory by combining science communication and misinformation science and presents practical tools to use for permitting agencies. Future studies should focus on artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled monitoring and Internet of Things (IoT)-based early warning systems.