Assessment of solar photovoltaic potential variations in Burkina Faso using SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios by 2050

The study assesses climate change and energy transition in Burkina Faso, a country endowed with high solar irradiation. It evaluates the variability of photovoltaic solar potential (PVP) using historical climate data (1985-2014) and future projections (2015-2050) from five CMIP6 climate models under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The analysis focuses on surface solar irradiation and air temperature. Nationally, PVP is projected to decrease by 1.04% (SSP1-2.6) to 3.10% (SSP5-8.5) compared to the historical period. The most significant reductions are expected to affect dry and semi–arid areas, which were previously the most suitable for solar energy production. The high-emission scenario SSP5-8.5, associated with severe global warming, results in the most substantial losses, particularly in the northern and eastern parts of the country. Despite this projected decline, these areas still hold the greatest potential. These findings underscore that, even under climate change, solar energy remains a viable and crucial option for meeting Burkina Faso’s growing energy demand, reducing dependence on fossil fuels, and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. However, the siting of large-scale PV fields must consider climate zones to limit future variability in energy production.