The agricultural sector’s contribution to economic growth in central Java Province

The agricultural sector plays an important role in maintaining regional economic stability, particularly during periods of crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic affected sectoral growth and changed the performance of several agricultural subsectors. This study aims to (i) analyze the potential of the agricultural sector and subsectors; (ii) analyze changes in the share of the agricultural sector and subsectors; (iii) determine the role of the agricultural sector in economic growth; and (iv) analyze the contributions and trends in the agricultural sector and subsectors before and after the COVID-19 pandemic in Central Java Province. This study employs a descriptive quantitative approach using secondary data obtained from the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of Central Java Province at constant 2010 prices by economic sector, covering the period 2014–2023. The analytical methods used include growth trend analysis, Location Quotient (LQ), Dynamic Location Quotient (DLQ), Shift-Share Analysis, and Klassen’s Typology. The results indicate that the growth trends of the agricultural sector and its subsectors before and after the pandemic exhibit negative regression coefficients, reflecting a decline in growth rates during the crisis. Nevertheless, the agricultural sector continued to exhibit characteristics of a base sector, both before and after the pandemic. LQ and DLQ analyses indicate that the food crops, horticulture, and livestock subsectors experienced an upgrade in status to become base subsectors and were classified as leading subsectors after the pandemic. Conversely, the plantation, forestry, and fisheries subsectors were classified as non-base and lagging. The overall growth structure of the agricultural sector was classified as “advanced but under pressure,” with the livestock subsector falling into the “advanced” category before the pandemic, and the food crops and horticulture subsectors falling into the “advanced” category after the pandemic. These findings confirm that the food crops and horticulture subsector is consistent, highly competitive, and reliable in maintaining regional economic stability during times of crisis and recovery.