Advancing basin modeling in the Niger Delta: A comparative analysis of modern and traditional approaches

The Niger Delta Basin, one of Africa’s most prolific hydrocarbon provinces, has long relied on basin modeling techniques to understand its complex geological framework and optimize resource exploitation. This study presents a comparative analysis of traditional and modern basin modeling approaches, with an emphasis on their applicability, accuracy, and effectiveness in the context of the Niger Delta. Traditional models, while foundational, often suffer from limited spatial resolution, sparse data integration, and inadequate computational capacity, which constrain their predictive power. In contrast, modern approaches incorporating advanced geostatistical methods, high-resolution 3D seismic data, machine learning algorithms, and integrated geophysical datasets offer superior accuracy and modeling fidelity. Drawing from expert interviews, case studies, and model simulation results, this paper demonstrates that modern modeling tools significantly enhance understanding of subsurface dynamics, stratigraphic evolution, and hydrocarbon migration pathways. Regression analyses further reveal a strong correlation between modern model use and improved exploration outcomes. However, widespread adoption of these technologies in the Niger Delta is hampered by infrastructural limitations, high implementation costs, and a skills gap. Findings underscore the need for capacity building, investment in geoscience technologies, and collaborative industry-academic research to bridge these gaps. Ultimately, this study advocates for a hybrid modeling strategy that integrates the empirical strengths of traditional models with the precision of modern tools to support more informed decision-making in basin analysis and hydrocarbon resource management in Nigeria. The paper contributes to the growing body of literature that supports digital transformation in geosciences within developing resource economies.