Forecasting value of production of palay and retail price of rice in the Philippines using ARIMA modelling
College of Business Administration Graduate School Office, Polytechnic University of the Philippines, Sta. Mesa Manila, Philippines.
Research Article
World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews, 2023, 17(03), 035–054
Article DOI: 10.30574/wjarr.2023.17.3.0345
Publication history:
Received on 20 January 2023; revised on 27 February 2023; accepted on 02 March 2023
Abstract:
As rice (milled palay) is an integral part of a Filipino meal, it is important to have an accurate estimation of its governing economic factors such as value of production and retail price. This study utilized Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Modelling and Box-Jenkins Method to forecast the value of production of palay and the retail price of the three varieties of its end-product, rice (regular-milled, well-milled, and special), for 2023 to 2027 using historical data from 2000 to 2022, and from 2012 to 2021, respectively. Results suggested that ARIMA (4, 1, 1) can be used to predict the value of production of palay, and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) to predict the retail prices of the three rice varieties. The value of production of palay was forecasted to continuously increase for the next 5 years, retaining its annual seasonal behavior. The retail price of all the three rice varieties were also forecasted to continuously increase, with the special variety of rice expected to surpass its 2018 maximum value by 2027. This study will be of significance in ensuring adequacy and stability of supply in the country for this major agricultural crop.
Keywords:
ARIMA; EViews; Palay; Rice; Agriculture; Forecasting
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Copyright © 2023 Author(s) retain the copyright of this article. This article is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Liscense 4.0